What the 10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Spread Actually Measures
Inspect six date-aligned Treasury observations and reproduce the yield spread in percentage points and basis points without treating it as a guaranteed forecast.
Editorial date: · Data reviewed September 30, 2026 · US Economic Data
A spread is a subtraction with a unit
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread subtracts the shorter-maturity constant-maturity yield from the longer-maturity yield on the same observation date. A spread of 0.50 percentage point equals 50 basis points. It is not a 50% return or a percentage growth rate.
The table contains selected dates from the acquired H.15 histories. Both legs use the same date and quote convention. The dates are examples rather than annual averages or annual ending values. They should not be plotted as though they represented evenly spaced monthly observations.
Original data comparison
This article retains its original acquired data vintage. Current indicator and state pages use the reviewed update. Inspect revisions and corrections.
H.15 same-date Treasury constant-maturity yields. Spread = 10y − 2y in percentage points; basis points = spread × 100. Selected dates, not annual averages.
| Observation date | 2-year yield | 10-year yield | Spread, percentage points | Spread, basis points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-01-04 | 0.11% | 0.93% | 0.82 | 82 |
| 2022-01-03 | 0.78% | 1.63% | 0.85 | 85 |
| 2023-01-03 | 4.40% | 3.79% | -0.61 | -61 |
| 2024-01-02 | 4.33% | 3.95% | -0.38 | -38 |
| 2025-01-02 | 4.25% | 4.57% | 0.32 | 32 |
| 2026-09-28 | 4.92% | 5.24% | 0.32 | 32 |
What the selected observations show
On 2026-09-28, the acquired 2-year yield was 4.92% and the 10-year yield was 5.24%. The subtraction is 0.32 percentage points, or 32 basis points. The selected January 2021 observation had a spread of 0.82 percentage points. Those endpoints show a change in the relationship between two maturities; they are not an investor’s realized holding-period return.
The intervening rows make the sign and scale visible without inferring a recession probability. A spread can change because the shorter yield moves, the longer yield moves, or both move. Inspecting the legs separately is therefore more informative than describing every spread change as the same market event.
What a negative value means
A negative result means the published 10-year yield is below the 2-year yield on that date. It describes an inverted relationship between those two maturities. It does not establish that every maturity is inverted, that borrowing rates available to businesses match these observations, or that a future recession will occur on a particular schedule.
The series is a financial reference observation rather than an executable quote. Nontrading-day gaps remain missing. The source file does not establish a publication timestamp for every historical row, so an observation date should not be recast as exact intraday availability.
The policy rate is a different measure
The effective federal funds rate comes from overnight transactions and has its own definition. It is distinct from both Treasury maturities and from the Federal Reserve’s policy target range. Combining these measures in a chart requires clear names and units rather than treating them as interchangeable interest rates.
Borrowers’ rates also depend on terms, credit risk and products. The Treasury spread does not quote a loan or recommend an investment. Subtracting the latest annual CPI change from a nominal yield likewise does not turn it into a market forecast of future real returns.
Historical research needs vintage information
A retrospective curve can describe the observations acquired for this site. It does not prove which revisions, model labels or economic announcements were known at an earlier moment. A backtest needs an explicit historical information set, not merely a current download with older observation dates.
Use the indicator page for the full daily spread history or the comparison workspace for separate panels of the two yields. The raw spread download identifies the website subtraction and its two producer codes. Ratio-based growth is deliberately unavailable for a signed spread.
Sources and calculation method
H.15 same-date Treasury constant-maturity yields. Spread = 10y − 2y in percentage points; basis points = spread × 100. Selected dates, not annual averages. These are observations in acquired September 30 snapshots. Source publication dates and reference periods differ; the article’s editorial date is separate from this final data-review date. The tables do not establish which revisions were known before acquisition.
- Federal Reserve H.15 definitions and release
- Spread history
- Effective federal funds rate definition
- Compare yields
Retain the table download and file checksum alongside the method when citing this comparison. For source or calculation questions, use the corrections contact.
